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  • #131

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Opened Feb 21, 2025 by Adela Baine@adelabaine0415
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Cloudy Amazon, Payrolls and A Flatter Curve


A take a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan Another projection miss from a U.S. megacap combines with caution ahead of January's work report to keep a lid on stocks into Friday's open - with buoyant long-dated Treasuries squashing the yield curve to its flattest for the year.

Similar to and Alphabet over the previous couple of weeks, Amazon dissatisfied Wall Street late Thursday as concern about cloud computing splashed income and revenue projections and sent its stock down 4% over night.

The latest underwhelming outlook from the "Magnificent 7" leading U.S. tech firms reins in an otherwise positive S&P 500, with concerns about heavy spends on expert system ignited again by the advancement of China's cheap DeepSeek design.

The DeepSeek buzz, wolvesbaneuo.com by contrast, continues to fire up Chinese stocks. They added another 1%-plus earlier on Friday in spite of ongoing concerns about an installing Sino-U.S. trade war and Monday's deadline for Beijing's retaliatory tariffs.

But the day's macro events will likely take precedence, with the release of the January U.S. employment report and long-term revisions of previous task creation.

Job development likely slowed to 170,000 in January from just over quarter of million the prior month, partly restrained by wild fires in California and cold weather condition throughout much of the country.

Those distortions add a further issue to the readout, which will include yearly benchmark revisions, new population weights and updates to the seasonal adjustments.

The week's sweep of other labor market reports, nevertheless, do point to some cooling of conditions - with job openings falling, layoffs rising and weekly out of work claims ticking higher.

With the Federal Reserve already trying to parse the impact of President Donald Trump's brand-new financial policies, payroll distortions simply cloud the photo even further.

And as Fed officials insist they can wait and see for a bit, Fed futures remain trained on two more interest rate cuts this year - resuming about midyear.

The Treasury market is more urged though - sustaining the early week's sharp drop in 10-year yields into today's jobs report and seeing the 2-to-10 year yield curve compress to the flattest it's remained in six weeks.

Helping the long end this week has been reassuring signals from the Treasury's quarterly reimbursing report that a "describing out" of debt auctions to longer maturities is not yet in the works, as lots of had feared.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also insisted the brand-new government's focus would be on getting long-lasting rates down instead of pressuring the Fed to relieve too soon.

Reuters analysis reveals Trump has actually placed holds on tens of billions of dollars in congressionally-approved costs for projects throughout the U.S. that vary from Iowa soybean farmers embracing greener practices to a Virginia railway expansion.

Bessent likewise doubled down on his view the administration wishes to retain a "strong dollar" policy. But he colored that with a sideswipe. "What we wear ´ t want is other nations to compromise their currencies, to control their trade."

But with the Fed on hold, main banks worldwide continued reducing rates of interest apace this week - partially on issues a trade tariff war will damage their economies.

With a sharp cut in its UK growth projection, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by a quarter point on Thursday - with two of its policymakers electing a bigger half point reduction. Sterling deteriorated initially, however has actually steadied considering that.

Mexico's main bank also cut its rate of interest by 50 basis points on Thursday - stating it could cut by a similar magnitude in the future as inflation cools and after the economy contracted slightly late last year.

The European Reserve bank, meantime, is expected to release its upgraded price quote of what it views as a "neutral" rates of interest in the future Friday.

That is necessary as it informs the ECB dispute about whether it needs to cut rates below what thinks about neutral to revive the flagging euro zone economy. It's presently seen around 2% - 75bps listed below the standing policy rate.

In thrall to the payrolls release, the dollar index was consistent on Friday. Dollar/yen briefly notched a brand-new low for the year, king-wifi.win however, disgaeawiki.info as Bank of Japan tightening up speculation simmers.

In Europe, stocks stalled near record highs as the heavy profits season there unfolded.

Banks there have actually a been a standout winner this week and again on Friday. Danske Bank, Denmark's most significant lender, was up 7.1% after it posted record yearly earnings and launch a new share buyback programme.

Key developments that ought to offer more instructions to U.S. markets in the future Friday: * U.S. January work report, University of Michigan February customer survey, December consumer credit; Canada Jan employment report; Mexico Jan inflation * European Central Bank updates its quote of "R *" neutral rate of interest * Federal Reserve Board Governors Michelle Bowman and engel-und-waisen.de Adriana Kugler speak; Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks * U.S. corporate earnings: Cboe Global Markets, Fortive, Kimco Realty * Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba check outs United States

(By Mike Dolan, editing by XXXX mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)

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Reference: adelabaine0415/sheiksandwiches#131