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  • Adela Baine
  • sheiksandwiches
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  • #64

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Opened Feb 11, 2025 by Adela Baine@adelabaine0415
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What Trump's Trade War Means for YOUR Investments


It's been another 'Manic Monday' for savers and financiers.

Having woken up at the start of last week to the game-changing news that an unidentified Chinese start-up had developed a cheap artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot, they learned over the weekend that Donald Trump truly was going to bring out his danger of launching an all-out trade war.

The US President's choice to slap a 25 percent tariff on products imported from Canada and Mexico, and a ten per cent tax on deliveries from China, sent out stock exchange into another tailspin, simply as they were recuperating from last week's rout.

But whereas that sell-off was mainly restricted to AI and other innovation stocks, this time the impacts of a possibly drawn-out trade war could be much more destructive and extensive, and maybe plunge the worldwide economy - consisting of the UK - into a downturn.

And the choice to postpone the tariffs on Mexico for one month used only partial break on global markets.

So how should British financiers play this highly unpredictable and unforeseeable situation? What are the sectors and assets to avoid, and who or what might become winners?

In its most basic type, a tariff is a tax imposed by one country on goods imported from another.

Crucially, the duty is not paid by the foreign business exporting however by the receiving business, which pays the levy to its government, offering it with useful tax profits.

President Donald with press reporters in Washington today after Air Force One touched down at Joint Base Andrews

These could be worth up to $250billion a year, or 0.8 percent of US GDP, according to consultants at Capital Economics.

Canada, Mexico and China together represent $1.3 trillion - or 42 per cent - of the $3.1 trillion of goods imported into the US in 2023.

Most economists dislike tariffs, mainly because they cause inflation when companies pass on their increased import costs to consumers, sending costs higher.

But Mr Trump loves them - he has actually explained tariff as 'the most lovely word in the dictionary'.

In his recent election campaign, Mr Trump made clear of his plan to enforce import taxes on neighbouring countries unless they suppressed the unlawful circulation of drugs and migrants into the US.

Next in Mr Trump's sights is the European Union, where he's said tariffs will 'certainly occur' - and perhaps the UK.

The US President says Britain is 'escape of line' however an offer 'can be exercised'.

Nobody must be surprised the US President has decided to shoot very first and ask questions later on.

Trade sensitive companies in Europe were also hit by Mr Trump's tariffs, consisting of German carmakers Volkswagen and BMW

Shares in European consumer products companies such as drinks huge Diageo, which makes Guinness, fell greatly in the middle of fears of greater expenses for their items

What matters now is how other nations react.

Canada, Mexico and China have actually currently retaliated in kind, prompting fears of a tit-for-tat escalation that might swallow up the whole international economy if others follow suit.

Mr Trump concedes that Americans will bear some 'short-term' pain from his sweeping tariffs. 'But long term the United States has actually been duped by virtually every country worldwide,' he included.

Mr Trump says the tariffs imposed by previous US President William McKinley in 1890 made America thriving, ushering in a 'golden age' when the US overtook Britain as the world's most significant economy. He desires to repeat that formula to 'make America terrific again'.

But specialists state he risks a re-run of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 - a dreadful measure introduced simply after the Wall Street stock market crash. It raised tariffs on a broad swathe of goods imported into the US, funsilo.date causing a collapse in worldwide trade and exacerbating the impacts of the Great Depression.

'The lessons from history are clear: protectionist policies hardly ever deliver the intended advantages,' states Nigel Green, president of wealth manager deVere Group.

Rising costs, inflationary pressures and disrupted global supply chains - which are much more inter-connected today than they were a century ago - will impact companies and consumers alike, he added.

'The Smoot-Hawley tariffs intensified the Great Depression by suppressing worldwide trade, and today's tariffs run the risk of triggering the exact same devastating cycle,' Mr Green adds.

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Perhaps the finest historical guide to how Mr Trump's trade policy will affect financiers is from his first term in the White House.

'Trump's launch of tariffs in 2018 did raise earnings for America, however US business profits took a hit that year and the S&P 500 index fell by a fifth, so markets have actually not surprisingly taken scare this time around,' states Russ Mould, director at financial investment platform AJ Bell.

Fortunately is that inflation didn't surge in the aftermath, which might 'mitigate current monetary market fears that greater tariffs will imply higher prices and higher costs will imply higher rate of interest,' Mr Mould adds.

The reason costs didn't jump was 'since customers and companies refused to pay them and sought out less expensive alternatives - which is precisely the Trump strategy this time around', Mr Mould explains. 'American importers and foreign sellers into the US elected to take the hit on margin and did not pass on the expense impact of the tariffs.'

Simply put, companies took in the greater expenses from tariffs at the cost of their revenues and sparing customers rate increases.

So will it be various this time round?

'It is tough to see how an escalation of trade tensions can do any excellent, to anyone, at least over the longer run,' states Inga Fechner, senior economist at investment bank ING. 'Economically speaking, intensifying trade tensions are a lose-lose circumstance for all countries involved.'

The impact of an international trade war might be devastating if targeted economies retaliate, oke.zone prices increase, trade fades and development stalls or falls. In such a situation, rates of interest might either rise, to curb greater inflation, or fall, to enhance drooping development.

The consensus among professionals is that tariffs will mean the cost of obtaining stays higher for longer to tame resurgent inflation, but the fact is no one truly knows.

Tariffs might also cause a falling oil cost - as demand from market and customers for dearer items droops - though a barrel of crude was trading greater on Monday in the middle of fears that North American materials might be interfered with, leading to shortages.

In either case a significant drop in the oil price may not suffice to conserve the day.

'Unless oil rates come by 80 per cent to $15 a barrel it is unlikely lower energy costs will balance out the effects of tariffs and existing inflation,' states Adam Kobeissi, founder of an influential financier newsletter.

Investors are playing the 'Trump tariff trade' by switching out of risky assets and into conventional safe houses - a pattern experts say is most likely to continue while uncertainty continues.

Among the hardest struck are microchip and technology stocks such as Nvidia, which fell 7 per cent, and UK-based Arm, which is off 6 per cent, as monetary markets brace for retaliation from China and curbs on semiconductor sales.

Other trade-sensitive business were likewise hit. Shares in German carmakers Volkswagen and BMW and durable goods business such as drinks huge Diageo fell sharply amidst worries of higher expenses for their items.

But the greatest losers have been cryptocurrencies, which skyrocketed when Mr Trump won the US election but are now falling back to earth.

At $94,000, Bitcoin is down 15 percent from its current all-time high, while Ethereum - another significant cryptocurrency - fell by more than a third in the 60 hours given that news of the Trump trade wars struck the headings.

Crypto has taken a hit due to the fact that financiers believe Mr Trump's tariffs will sustain inflation, which in turn might trigger the US main bank, the Federal Reserve, to keep rate of interest at their present levels or perhaps increase them. The effect tariffs might have on the path of rates of interest is uncertain. However, higher interest rates make crypto, which does not produce an earnings, less appealing to financiers than when rates are low.

As investors leave these highly unstable possessions they have actually stacked into typically safer bets such as gold, which is trading at a record high of $2,800 an ounce, and the dollar, which surged against significant currencies yesterday.

Experts say the dollar's strength is actually a benefit for the FTSE 100 because a number of the British companies in the index make a lot of their money in the US currency, meaning they benefit when profits are equated into sterling.

The FTSE 100 fell yesterday however by less than a lot of the significant indices.

It is not all doom and gloom.

'One huge hope is that the tariffs do not last, while another is that the US Federal Reserve assists out with some interest rate cuts, something for which Trump is currently calling,' says AJ Bell's Mr Mould.

Traders expect the Bank of England to cut rates this week by a quarter of a percentage indicate 4.5 percent, while the opportunity of three or more rate cuts later this year have actually risen in the wake of the trade war shock.

Whenever stock exchange wobble it is tempting to worry and offer, however holding your nerve typically pays dividends, experts say.

'History likewise reveals that volatility breeds chance,' states deVere's Mr Green.

'Those who think twice risk being caught on the wrong side of market motions. But for those who gain from previous disturbances and take definitive action, this duration of volatility could provide a few of the very best opportunities in years.'

Among the sectors Mr Green likes are European banks, because their shares are trading at fairly low rates and interest rates in the eurozone are lower than somewhere else. 'Defence stocks, such as BAE Systems, are also attractive since they will provide a steady return,' he includes.

Investors need to not rush to sell while the image is cloudy and can watch out for potential bargains. One strategy is to invest routine monthly quantities into shares or funds rather than large swelling amounts. That way you lower the risk of bad timing and, when markets fall, you can buy more shares for your cash so, as and when prices rise again, you benefit.

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Reference: adelabaine0415/sheiksandwiches#64