Wall Street Shows Its 'bouncebackability': McGeever
By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, Feb 5 (Reuters) - "Bouncebackability."
This Britishism is usually associated with cliche-prone soccer managers trumpeting their groups' capability to respond to defeat. It's unlikely to find its method throughout the pond into the Wall Street crowd's lexicon, but it completely summarizes the U.S. stock market's to all the setbacks, shocks and everything else that's been thrown at it just recently.
And there have actually been a lot: U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff flip-flops, stretched appraisals, extreme concentration in Big Tech and the DeepSeek-led turmoil that just recently called into question America's "exceptionalism" in the worldwide AI arms race.
Any one of those issues still has the prospective to snowball, triggering an avalanche of offering that might push U.S. equities into a correction and even bear-market area.
But Wall Street has actually ended up being incredibly resilient given that the 2022 thrashing, specifically in the last six months.
Just look at the artificial intelligence-fueled turmoil on Jan. 27, stimulated by Chinese startup DeepSeek's revelation that it had actually developed a large language model that might attain similar or better results than U.S.-developed LLMs at a portion of the expense. By numerous measures, the marketplace move was seismic.
Nvidia shares fell 17%, slicing nearly $600 billion off the company's market cap, the most significant one-day loss for any company ever. The worth of the larger U.S. stock exchange fell by around $1 trillion.
Drilling deeper, experts at JPMorgan discovered that the thrashing in "long momentum" - essentially buying stocks that have actually been carrying out well just recently, such as tech and AI shares - was a near "7 sigma" relocation, or seven times the standard discrepancy. It was the third-largest fall in 40 years for this trading strategy.
But this legendary relocation didn't crash the marketplace. Rotation into other sectors accelerated, and around 70% of S&P 500-listed stocks ended the day greater, suggesting the more comprehensive index fell only 1.45%. And buyers of tech stocks soon returned.
U.S. equity funds drew in almost $24 billion of inflows last week, technology fund inflows hit a 16-week high, and momentum funds attracted positive circulations for a fifth-consecutive week, according to EPFR, the fund streams tracking firm.
"Investors saw the DeepSeek-triggered selloff as a chance rather than an off-ramp," EPFR director of research study Cameron Brandt composed on Monday. "Fund flows ... recommend that a number of those financiers kept faith with their previous assumptions about AI."
PANIC MODE?
Remember "yenmageddon," the yen bring trade volatility of last August? The yen's abrupt bounce from a 33-year low against the dollar triggered fears that financiers would be required to offer possessions in other markets and countries to cover losses in their huge yen-funded bring trades.
The yen's rally was extreme, on par with previous financial crises, photorum.eclat-mauve.fr and the Nikkei's 12% fall on Aug. 5 was the most significant one-day drop considering that October 1987 and the second-largest on record.
The panic, if it can be called that, spread. The S&P 500 lost 8% in 2 days. But it disappeared rapidly. The S&P 500 recovered its losses within 2 weeks, and the Nikkei did likewise within a month.
So Wall Street has actually passed 2 big tests in the last 6 months, a duration that consisted of the U.S. presidential election and Trump's go back to the White House.
What explains the strength? There's nobody obvious answer. Investors are broadly bullish about Trump's economic agenda, the Fed still seems to be in relieving mode (for now), the AI craze and U.S. exceptionalism narratives are still in play, and liquidity abounds.
Perhaps one crucial motorist is a well-worn one: the Fed put. Investors - many of whom have actually spent an excellent chunk of their working lives in the age of extremely loose financial policy - may still feel that, if it really comes down to it, the Fed will have their backs.
There will be more pullbacks, and risks of a more prolonged slump do appear to be growing. But for now, the rebounds keep coming. That's bouncebackability.
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Rod Nickel)