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  • #16

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Opened Feb 11, 2025 by Alison Randell@alisons8741073
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What Trump's Trade War Means for YOUR Investments


It's been another 'Manic Monday' for savers and investors.

Having gotten up at the start of last week to the game-changing news that an unidentified Chinese start-up had actually developed a low-cost synthetic intelligence (AI) chatbot, they discovered over the weekend that Donald Trump truly was going to carry out his hazard of launching a full-scale trade war.

The US President's choice to slap a 25 per cent tariff on items imported from Canada and Mexico, and a ten per cent tax on deliveries from China, sent stock markets into another tailspin, just as they were recovering from recently's rout.

But whereas that sell-off was mainly confined to AI and other technology stocks, this time the results of a potentially lengthy trade war could be a lot more damaging and widespread, and maybe plunge the global economy - including the UK - into a downturn.

And the decision to postpone the tariffs on Mexico for one month provided only partial respite on global markets.

So how should British investors play this highly volatile and unforeseeable situation? What are the sectors and properties to avoid, and who or what might become winners?

In its easiest type, a tariff is a tax imposed by one country on goods imported from another.

Crucially, the duty is not paid by the foreign business exporting but by the receiving business, which pays the levy to its federal government, supplying it with helpful tax incomes.

President Donald Trump talking with press reporters in Washington today after Air Force One touched down at Joint Base Andrews

These might be worth up to $250billion a year, or 0.8 per cent of US GDP, according to consultants at Capital Economics.

Canada, Mexico and China together account for $1.3 trillion - or 42 percent - of the $3.1 trillion of goods imported into the US in 2023.

Most economic experts dislike tariffs, mainly because they trigger inflation when companies hand down their increased import expenses to customers, ratemywifey.com sending prices higher.

But Mr Trump likes them - he has actually explained tariff as 'the most beautiful word in the dictionary'.

In his current election campaign, Mr Trump made clear of his plan to impose import taxes on neighbouring nations unless they curbed the illegal circulation of drugs and migrants into the US.

Next in Mr Trump's sights is the European Union, where he's said tariffs will 'certainly happen' - and perhaps the UK.

The US President states Britain is 'escape of line' but an offer 'can be worked out'.

Nobody should be amazed the US President has actually chosen to shoot very first and ask questions later on.

Trade delicate companies in Europe were likewise struck by Mr Trump's tariffs, asteroidsathome.net including German carmakers Volkswagen and BMW

Shares in European durable goods business such as beverages giant Diageo, which makes Guinness, fell sharply in the middle of fears of greater expenses for their products

What matters now is how other nations respond.

Canada, Mexico and China have currently retaliated in kind, triggering worries of a tit-for-tat escalation that could engulf the whole worldwide economy if others follow suit.

Mr Trump concedes that Americans will bear some 'short-term' pain from his sweeping tariffs. 'But long term the United States has been ripped off by essentially every country worldwide,' he added.

Mr Trump says the tariffs enforced by previous US President William McKinley in 1890 made America thriving, introducing a 'golden era' when the US surpassed Britain as the world's greatest economy. He wishes to duplicate that formula to 'make America terrific again'.

But specialists state he risks a re-run of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 - a dreadful measure presented simply after the Wall Street stock exchange crash. It raised tariffs on a broad swathe of products imported into the US, leading to a collapse in international trade and exacerbating the impacts of the Great Depression.

'The lessons from history are clear: protectionist policies hardly ever provide the desired advantages,' states Nigel Green, chief executive of wealth supervisor deVere Group.

Rising expenses, inflationary pressures and disrupted international supply chains - which are far more inter-connected today than they were a century ago - will impact services and customers alike, he included.

'The Smoot-Hawley tariffs got worse the Great Depression by suppressing global trade, and today's tariffs run the risk of triggering the exact same harmful cycle,' Mr Green includes.

How Trump's individual crypto raises worries of 'harmful' corruption in White House

Perhaps the finest historic guide to how Mr Trump's trade policy will impact financiers is from his very first term in the White House.

'Trump's launch of tariffs in 2018 did raise revenues for bytes-the-dust.com America, but US corporate earnings took a hit that year and the S&P 500 index fell by a 5th, so markets have actually not surprisingly taken scare this time around,' says Russ Mould, director at financial investment platform AJ Bell.

Fortunately is that inflation didn't spike in the consequences, which might 'relieve current financial market fears that greater tariffs will imply higher rates and higher rates will suggest greater rate of interest,' Mr Mould adds.

The reason rates didn't jump was 'due to the fact that consumers and companies refused to pay them and looked for cheaper options - which is exactly the Trump plan this time around', Mr Mould explains. 'American importers and foreign sellers into the US chosen to take the hit on margin and did not pass on the cost effect of the tariffs.'

To put it simply, companies absorbed the greater expenses from tariffs at the expenditure of their profits and sparing consumers price rises.

So will it be various this time round?

'It is tough to see how an escalation of trade stress can do any excellent, to anybody, at least over the longer run,' states Inga Fechner, senior economic expert at financial investment bank ING. 'Economically speaking, intensifying trade tensions are a lose-lose scenario for all countries involved.'

The impact of a worldwide trade war could be if targeted economies strike back, costs rise, trade fades and growth stalls or falls. In such a scenario, interest rates could either increase, to suppress higher inflation, or fall, to enhance sagging development.

The consensus amongst professionals is that tariffs will imply the cost of obtaining stays greater for longer to tame resurgent inflation, however the fact is no one actually understands.

Tariffs might also cause a falling oil rate - as demand from market and customers for dearer products sags - though a barrel of crude was trading greater on Monday in the middle of worries that North American products might be interrupted, causing shortages.

In either case a remarkable drop in the oil cost might not suffice to conserve the day.

'Unless oil prices drop by 80 percent to $15 a barrel it is not likely lower energy costs will balance out the impacts of tariffs and existing inflation,' says Adam Kobeissi, founder of a prominent financier newsletter.

Investors are playing the 'Trump tariff trade' by switching out of risky possessions and into conventional safe havens - a pattern experts state is likely to continue while uncertainty continues.

Among the hardest hit are microchip and innovation stocks such as Nvidia, which fell 7 per cent, and UK-based Arm, which is off 6 per cent, as monetary markets brace for retaliation from China and curbs on semiconductor sales.

Other trade-sensitive business were also struck. Shares in German carmakers Volkswagen and BMW and consumer products business such as beverages giant Diageo fell sharply amid worries of greater expenses for their items.

But the greatest losers have been cryptocurrencies, which soared when Mr Trump won the US election but are now falling back to earth.

At $94,000, Bitcoin is down 15 per cent from its recent all-time high, while Ethereum - another major cryptocurrency - fell by more than a 3rd in the 60 hours since news of the Trump trade wars hit the headings.

Crypto has actually taken a hit due to the fact that investors think Mr Trump's tariffs will sustain inflation, which in turn may cause the US main bank, the Federal Reserve, to keep rates of interest at their current levels or perhaps increase them. The effect tariffs might have on the course of interest rates is uncertain. However, higher interest rates make crypto, which does not produce an earnings, less attractive to financiers than when rates are low.

As financiers leave these highly unstable properties they have actually piled into typically more secure bets such as gold, which is trading at a record high of $2,800 an ounce, and the dollar, which rose against major currencies yesterday.

Experts say the dollar's strength is really an advantage for the FTSE 100 since a number of the British business in the index make a lot of their money in the US currency, implying they benefit when revenues are translated into sterling.

The FTSE 100 fell yesterday however by less than numerous of the significant indices.

It is not all doom and gloom.

'One huge hope is that the tariffs do not last, wiki.rrtn.org while another is that the US Federal Reserve assists out with some rates of interest cuts, something for which Trump is currently calling,' says AJ Bell's Mr Mould.

Traders expect the Bank of England to cut rates today by a quarter of a percentage indicate 4.5 per cent, while the opportunity of three or more rate cuts later this year have actually increased in the wake of the trade war shock.

Whenever stock exchange wobble it is appealing to stress and sell, however holding your nerve normally pays dividends, specialists state.

'History likewise reveals that volatility types chance,' says deVere's Mr Green.

'Those who think twice risk being captured on the incorrect side of market motions. But for those who gain from previous disturbances and take definitive action, this period of volatility might present some of the best chances in years.'

Among the sectors Mr Green likes are European banks, since their shares are trading at fairly low prices and interest rates in the eurozone are lower than somewhere else. 'Defence stocks, such as BAE Systems, are also attractive since they will offer a stable return,' he includes.

Investors ought to not hurry to sell while the photo is cloudy and can keep an eye out for potential bargains. One technique is to invest regular month-to-month quantities into shares or funds instead of big swelling amounts. That method you lower the threat of bad timing and, when markets fall, you can purchase more shares for your cash so, as and when prices rise again, you benefit.

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Reference: alisons8741073/web-3buzz#16